The government kept its nerve in the face of a massive shock. It chose not to resort to a massive fiscal stimulus. It focused instead on providing liquidity support and easing restrictions on movement in stages, observes T T Ram Mohan.
SBI was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, shedding 2.40 per cent, followed by Yes Bank, Bharti Airtel, L&T, Sun Pharma, M&M, ICICI Bank, ONGC, RIL, Asian Paints, Vedanta and HUL, which lost up to 2.37 per cent.
'At this moment, investors should look for relative value within sectors and clear visibility (third-wave-or-not) on earnings delivery.'
The NCEAR has indicated some improvement in the fourth quarter of the current financial year.
India's economy is unlikely to see double-digit growth and may grow between 8 per cent and 9 per cent this fiscal year (2021-22, or FY22), against the estimated 11.5 per cent, according to leading economists and rating agencies. The downward revision of growth projections to as low as 10 per cent is mostly on account of stringency in restrictions by states, relatively slow vaccination pace, and the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic. However, they say the impact will not be as severe as the first wave, and expect the first quarter to see positive growth.
India's economic growth had slumped to a decade's low of five per cent in 2012-13.
"The theme of tomorrow's meeting is 'Economic Policy Reform, Road Ahead'. The prime minister will make opening remarks. There are 15 invitees who will make their presentations before the prime minister," a senior government official said.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
'This market is very expensive in some pockets, dirt cheap in some, and the belly of the market is reasonably valued.'
Indian equities are no longer cheap vis-a-vis global markets, and only a short distance away from being the most expensive they have ever been.
However, the Indian economy is expected to bounce back in 2021, the World Bank said.
Thirteen companies have joined the Rs 1-trillion-plus market capitalisation club this year, so far. This even as the benchmark Sensex has gained less than 3 per cent on a year-to-date basis, underscoring the bullish undercurrent in the broader market. The trend shows a harsh second wave of Covid-19, subsequent lockdowns, and hit to the economic activity has made little dent into India Inc or shareholders' wealth. At the start of the year, there were 29 companies with a market value of more than Rs 1 trillion.
Global banking major, HSBC has retained its India GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent in FY10 but hiked the outlook for next fiscal by 0.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent given the economic recovery.
If it doesn't do that, what Uddhav Thackeray postpones addressing today will be there on the table to confront, for whoever anchors the Sena in the years ahead, observes Shyam G Menon.
'So, what does one believe -- just 6 stocks that are pushing the indices higher or the 600 scrips that are reflecting economic pain?'
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy is yet to recover from the impact of the second Covid wave.
It came on the back of tepid dispatches in the March quarter as consumer sentiment took a knocking, owing to uncertainty ahead of the general election.
With domestic retail fuel prices jumping to record high on rising international oil rates, India on Thursday pressed oil cartel OPEC for 'affordable' oil price within a 'reasonable band' and that the producers should phase out production cuts. OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia have traditionally been India's principal oil source. But, OPEC and its allies, called OPEC+, ignoring its call for ease supply curbs had led to the world's third-biggest oil importer tap newer sources to diversify its crude oil imports. As a result, OPEC's share in India's oil imports has dropped to about 60 per cent in May from 74 per cent in the previous month.
It is impossible for anyone to explain how markets are hitting record highs during an economic recession. It is both mysterious and surreal, notes Debashis Basu.
The WPI has been in the negative zone since November.
According to Boeing, India would need 1,940 single-aisle planes worth $220 billion and 350 wide-body aircraft valued at $100 billion.
Analysts welcomed the better Q2 GDP readings of 4.8 per cent, which came in above their expectations, but warned that the planned expenditure cuts by the government will be the key thing to watch out going forward.
The uncertainty created by the jump in COVID-19 infections and localised lockdowns prompted RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and other members of the rating setting panel MPC to unanimously vote for status quo in interest rates and an accommodative policy stance to support growth, as per minutes of the meeting released on Thursday. "The need of the hour is to effectively secure the economic recovery underway so that it becomes broad-based and durable," the Governor said during the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which ended on April 7. The renewed jump in COVID-19 infections in several parts of the country and the associated localised and regional lockdowns add uncertainty to the growth outlook, he observed, as per the minutes of the meeting released by the central bank.
The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years
India's rising GDP may have propelled the middle class to become richer, buy new cars, travel around the world and build assets, but it further pushed the economically disadvantaged and poor into poverty and drudgery, says Devanik Saha.
'We have to stop thinking about GDP and look at the impact on output and unemployment.' 'And that is not going to be insignificant.'
The survey, however, said that GDP is expected to revert to growth terrain next year, when it is likely to grow by 7.2 per cent.
Even as both India and the world struggle to re-build after COVID-19, they face slow-burn problems that could develop into full-blown crises, observes T N Ninan.
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IT market is forecast to grow 2.8 per cent in dollar terms and 5.1 per cent in constant currency from 2012, Gartner said in a statement.
Chetan Ghate, Pami Dua and Ravindra Dholakia have been appointed for 4 years
UBS, Credit Suisse see emerging markets doing well next year, but expect India to underperform, given its rich valuations.
'The numbers are null and void now. Look, we can give out projections now, but we know that a week later those numbers will also be irrelevant. So we need to wait,' a top government official said.
The panel noted that the macro-economic fundamentals of the economy are sound but challenges remain, several of which are structural in nature.
Chinese Premier Premier Li Keqiang said world economic recovery should not be driven by mainly China, but in concert with many countries.
Increasing female economic participation by ensuring equal work opportunities for women and expanding access to education and skills training for female entrepreneurs.
The G-20 meeting of the Finance Ministers and central bank governors beginning July 19 will also be attended by RBI Governor D Subbarao and Deputy Governor Urjit Patel.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, whose foundation has been part of the effort to develop and deliver COVID-19 vaccines, has warned that the next four to six months could be the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.
India's latest GDP numbers do not signal robust economic growth in near term.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
Top losers in the Sensex pack included IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank, SBI, L&T, Tata Steel, M&M, Bajaj Finance, Vedanta, Tata Motors and RIL, tumbling up to 6.97 per cent.
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